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Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry (news - web sites) claims the American middle class has been faring miserably under President Bush (news - web sites)'s stewardship of the economy.
How miserably? The Massachusetts senator calculates it using a "middle-class misery index," a variation of a 40-year-old formula that economists devised to gauge economic health. While the original "misery index" combines just the unemployment and inflation rates, Kerry's includes seven factors that range from stagnant wages to soaring health care costs. By that measure, Americans are struggling even in the midst of a robust expansion.
Kerry's downbeat economic talk may be inevitable for a candidate challenging an incumbent's record in the wake of a recession. But as the economy blooms, his index's credibility is wilting:
Kerry's index paints a partial inflation picture. It plots the rise in costs for health care, gasoline and college tuition, which have risen sharply during Bush's presidency, but it ignores falling or stable prices for other items - from cars to computers to clothing. It also ignores the relatively low unemployment rate of 5.6%, record low interest rates and a stock market up 40% from its 2002 lows, despite recent doldrums.
It ignores the economic recovery. Most measures of economic health, while below levels of the booming 1990s, have been heading upward. The economy has added an impressive 1.2 million jobs since January, inflation rose a modest 2% over the past year, and wages are picking up.
It overstates the nation's "misery ." The traditional misery index is a respectable 7.8% so far this year. That compares with a high of 20.6% in 1980 and a low of 6.1% in 1998. It has averaged 7.7% under Bush, lower than in any presidential term in the past 30 years, except for Bill Clinton (news - web sites)'s second.
Kerry's supporters say his index taps into the anxiety average Americans feel. "If anything at all goes wrong - an illness or temporary layoff - most families can't pay the bills, and they risk everything they've built and saved for," the candidate said last week.
Those fears are felt by many workers, particularly in the nation's industrial Midwest, where economic gains have been uneven. But they don't compare with the anxieties sparked by runaway inflation in the 1970s or worse recessions in the 1980s and early '90s.
What's more, Kerry has not offered answers for all of the problems he cites. While he would steer more federal money into health care and college education by eliminating part of the tax cut Bush pushed through two years ago, he has no realistic plan for tamping down gas prices, boosting wages or preventing companies from laying off workers. In fact, presidents have little control over short-term economic trends.
By talking down the economy, Kerry may hope to pick up votes in economically struggling states where the November election may be decided. But in doing so, he risks sounding out of touch with millions of Americans who see signs of an improving economy - and want a president with a sunnier outlook. The recent death of former president Ronald Reagan (news - web sites) recalls just how powerful an optimistic message can be.
Exaggerating the nation's economic misery is not wise policy or politics. The nation is looking for an upbeat problem-solver, not a gloomy naysayer.
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